W W Nolan

3yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 8 · OR 58

Fairmount Park · Race 6 - Maiden Claiming · 6f

Rank

Odds

3/5

Win Prob

90%

Place Prob

68%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE

▲ BEATS ITS MARK

Move▼1

Strength25%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.5 /10 (raw 3.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.3

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-19	Fairmount Park	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-07-21	Fairmount Park	?	4th	1st	+3	9.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-1 · tight 71/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +53.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
21/07/2026	4th	10/3	82%	25%	-0.57
19/09/2026	2nd	5/2	87%	83%	-0.04