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Hot T'mater

4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 1 · OR 67

Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#7

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength22%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Hawthorne 18/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 53 · 5f110y Fm 121 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 53 par18/09C6OR 53C6 @ Fairmount Park 18/10/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 53 · 6f 120 · beat its mark18/10/2025 · OR 53 parC5 @ Hawthorne 26/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 58 · 5f110y Gd 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/10/2025 · OR 58 par26/10C5OR 58C6 @ Fairmount Park 21/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 64 · 5f 124 · below its mark21/04/2026 · OR 64 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 12/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 62 · 5f110y 124 · beat its mark12/05/2026 · OR 62 par12/05C6OR 62C6 @ Fairmount Park 02/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 62 · 6f 124 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 62 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 14/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 60 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 60 par14/07C6OR 60C6 @ Fairmount Park 04/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 54 · 6f 124 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 54 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 15/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 56 · 6f 124 · beat its mark15/09/2026 · OR 56 par15/09C6OR 56projClass-projected finish: 4th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-15Fairmount Park?5th5th0
2026-08-04Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-14Fairmount Park?5th5th0
2026-06-02Fairmount Park?4th4th0
2026-05-12Fairmount Park?4th4th0
2026-04-21Fairmount Park?6th6th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today18/0921/0414/0715/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength93%

Delivery trend +0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
18/09/20251st4/998%100%+0.02
18/10/20254th5/174%50%-0.24
26/10/20253rd20/10%67%+0.67
21/04/20266th5/174%17%-0.57
12/05/20264th10/147%50%+0.03
02/06/20264th16/116%63%+0.47
14/07/20265th8/158%43%-0.15
04/08/20262nd9/153%91%+0.38
15/09/20265th5/174%50%-0.24