6
Ima Midnight Lady
4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 6 · OR 53
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength85%
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 09/09/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 21/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 16/06/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 07/07/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 28/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |