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2

Lauren's War

5yo Mare · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 44

Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC9 @ Hawthorne 31/08/2025 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 29 · 1m 124 · beat its mark31/08/2025 · OR 29 par31/08C9OR 29C6 @ Hawthorne 18/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 34 · 5f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 34 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 21/10/2025 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 33 · 1m 126 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 33 par21/10C6OR 33C6 @ Fairmount Park 14/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 32 · 5f Fas 126 · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 32 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 05/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 31 · 5f110y Fas 126 · beat its mark05/05/2026 · OR 31 par5/05C6OR 31C6 @ Fairmount Park 26/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 31 · 1m Fas 126 · beat its mark26/05/2026 · OR 31 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 16/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 35 · 1m 126 · beat its mark16/06/2026 · OR 35 par16/06C6OR 35C6 @ Fairmount Park 07/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 47 · 1m 126 · beat its mark07/07/2026 · OR 47 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 04/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 51 · 6f 126 · beat its mark04/08/2026 · OR 51 par4/08C6OR 51projClass-projected finish: 5th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-04Fairmount Park?5th5th0
2026-07-07Fairmount Park?1st2nd−1
2026-06-16Fairmount Park?3rd4th−1
2026-05-26Fairmount Park?5th6th−1
2026-05-05Fairmount Park?6th7th−1
2026-04-14Fairmount Park?7th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0814/0416/064/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 60/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength80%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/08/20255th25/10%56%+0.56
18/09/20255th14/126%0%-0.26
21/10/20256th20/10%17%+0.17
14/04/20267th5/174%25%-0.49
05/05/20266th33/10%17%+0.17
26/05/20265th33/10%33%+0.33
16/06/20263rd25/10%60%+0.60
07/07/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
04/08/20265th25/10%64%+0.64