4
Midnight Date
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 57
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-09 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-12 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-07-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 41/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength18%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 12/08/2025 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 09/09/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 86% | +0.49 |
| 25/08/2026 | 9th | 9/2 | 76% | 11% | -0.65 |