9
Raz On Fire
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 9 · OR 56
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
41%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 2.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 3-6 · tight 74/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength58%
Delivery trend +2.1% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 60% | -0.01 |
| 14/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 83% | -0.10 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 88% | -0.02 |
| 05/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 26/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 8/11 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 57% | -0.17 |
| 25/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 89% | +0.42 |