5
Try
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 62
Fairmount Park · Race 7 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#3
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
6%
Place Prob
13%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Fairmount Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 74/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▼
Strength81%
Delivery trend -2.4% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 21/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 83% | +0.25 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 73% | -0.04 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 78% | -0.08 |
| 15/09/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |