4
Crushed Ice
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 4 · OR 82
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
82%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength12%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-23 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 29% | -0.58 |
| 15/02/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 03/04/2026 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 23/04/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 78% | +0.07 |
| 05/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 14/06/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 07/07/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 28/07/2026 | 4th | 11/8 | 93% | 50% | -0.43 |