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2

Lady Elise

4yo Filly · 9-0 · Draw 2 · OR 73

Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m

#2

Rank

Odds

2/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

14%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength35%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.2)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Hawthorne 03/10/2024 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 5f110y Fas 1193/10C6C5 @ Fairmount Park 29/10/2024 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 59 · 6f Fas 116 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2024 · OR 59 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 14/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 64 · 6f 120 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 64 par14/10C6OR 64C5 @ Hawthorne 30/10/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 69 · 6f 121 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/10/2025 · OR 69 parC6 @ Hawthorne 07/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 56 · 6f 123 · beat its mark07/06/2026 · OR 56 par7/06C6OR 56C5 @ Hawthorne 25/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 61 · 5f Fas 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 61 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 14/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 60 · 1m Fas 124 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 60 par14/07C6OR 60C6 @ Fairmount Park 25/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 3 · OR 67 · 6f 126 · beat its mark25/07/2026 · OR 67 parC6 @ Fairmount Park 19/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 69 · 6f 126 · beat its mark19/09/2026 · OR 69 par19/09C6OR 69projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-19Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-07-25Fairmount Park?2nd2nd0
2026-07-14Fairmount Park?1st1st0
2026-06-25Hawthorne?4th3rd+1
2026-06-07Hawthorne?3rd3rd0
2025-10-30Hawthorne?10th9th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today3/1030/1014/0719/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1089% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength75%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
03/10/20243rd7/282%71%-0.10
29/10/20244th14/126%57%+0.31
14/10/20251st5/493%100%+0.07
30/10/202510th50/10%0%0.00
07/06/20263rd11/271%60%-0.11
25/06/20264th10/147%40%-0.07
14/07/20261st11/893%100%+0.07
25/07/20262nd2/1199%50%-0.49
19/09/20261st11/486%100%+0.14