3
Natalia's Rap
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 75
Fairmount Park · Race 8 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 1m
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Fairmount Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-20 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fairmount Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Fairmount Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-07-26 | Fairmount Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 6-10 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength5%
Delivery trend -3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/05/2025 | 1st | 5/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 24/06/2025 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 83% | +0.01 |
| 08/07/2025 | 4th | 6/5 | 94% | 40% | -0.54 |
| 26/07/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/09/2025 | 7th | 15/8 | 90% | 0% | -0.90 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 50% | -0.41 |
| 26/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 40% | -0.47 |
| 01/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |