IvyArcIvyArc
3

Instant Success

3yo Gelding · 8-7 · Draw 3 · OR 67

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y

#4

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▼2
Strength87%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Aqueduct 13/03/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 51 · 1m Gd 120 · below its mark13/03/2026 · OR 51 par13/03C8OR 51C8 @ Aqueduct 27/03/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 54 · 7f 120 · below its mark27/03/2026 · OR 54 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 27/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 54 · 4f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 54 par27/04C5OR 54C5 @ Finger Lakes 18/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 53 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/05/2026 · OR 53 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 27/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 6 · OR 67 · 1m 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/05/2026 · OR 67 par27/05C5OR 67C5 @ Finger Lakes 30/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 72 · 1m70y 119 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/06/2026 · OR 72 parC5 @ Finger Lakes 15/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 5 · OR 67 · 5f110y Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark15/07/2026 · OR 67 par15/07C5OR 67C8 @ Finger Lakes 24/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 69 · 5f110y Fas 118 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 69 parC8 @ Finger Lakes 09/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 64 · 6f Fas 119 · below its mark09/09/2026 · OR 64 par9/09C8OR 64projClass-projected finish: 7th of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Finger Lakes?9th9th0
2026-08-24Finger Lakes?3rd3rd0
2026-07-15Finger Lakes?3rd0th+3
2026-06-30Finger Lakes?7th4th+3
2026-05-27Finger Lakes?1st-2th+3
2026-05-18Finger Lakes?2nd-1th+3

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/0318/0515/079/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 733% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 59/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength46%

Delivery trend -3.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/03/20266th25/10%0%0.00
27/03/20269th20/10%0%0.00
27/04/20264th12/137%40%+0.03
18/05/20262nd16/116%80%+0.64
27/05/20261st9/153%100%+0.47
30/06/20267th16/116%0%-0.16
15/07/20263rd10/147%50%+0.03
24/08/20263rd5/174%60%-0.14
09/09/20269th14/126%0%-0.26