Notfanutin
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 2 · OR 74
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 27/05/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 80% | +0.54 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 40% | -0.39 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 16/09/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 75% | +0.49 |