Solo Dancing

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 77

Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y

Rank

Odds

3/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKED

Move▼2

Strength72%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 4.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C5.8

Today:

Class gap: +1.7

Higher-class runs: 4

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-16	Finger Lakes	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-09-01	Finger Lakes	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2026-08-17	Finger Lakes	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-07-27	Finger Lakes	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0
2026-06-30	Finger Lakes	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2026-05-27	Finger Lakes	?	3rd	0th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · tight 68/100

▼ UNDER-DELIVERING

Trend▼

Strength28%

Delivery trend -9.0% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/04/2026	3rd	16/1	16%	60%	+0.44
18/04/2026	5th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
19/05/2026	4th	12/1	37%	40%	+0.03
27/05/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	60%	-0.22
30/06/2026	6th	11/2	71%	17%	-0.54
27/07/2026	3rd	7/2	82%	60%	-0.22
17/08/2026	5th	14/1	26%	0%	-0.26
01/09/2026	2nd	8/11	96%	50%	-0.46
16/09/2026	3rd	13/2	66%	50%	-0.16