Trew Violence
4yo Colt · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 83
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Claiming · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
97%
Place Prob
79%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-04-08 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-01-08 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/04/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 40% | -0.42 |
| 05/07/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 26/07/2025 | 11th | 12/1 | 37% | 9% | -0.28 |
| 08/01/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 55% | -0.17 |
| 08/04/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |