2
Father Walsh
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
93%
Place Prob
68%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 64/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength89%
Delivery trend +1.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 29/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 25/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 43% | -0.15 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 83% | -0.01 |