5
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7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 68
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-08-26 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 55/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength47%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2024 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 80% | -0.14 |
| 26/06/2025 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 63% | -0.19 |
| 26/08/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 16/09/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 03/11/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 21/09/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |