8
Smokin' Alone
10yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 58
Finger Lakes · Race 3 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 6-8 · tight 78/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/11/2025 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 18/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 02/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 15/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 14/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 21/09/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |