2
Gresham's Law
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 59
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-06-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-03 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 11th | 15th | −4 |
| 2026-01-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 829% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 53/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength78%
Delivery trend -4.7% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/01/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/05/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 25/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/07/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |