8
Kozy Bee
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 8 · OR 62
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
30%
Place Prob
27%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 31/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength62%
Delivery trend +5.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 05/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 08/09/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 21/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |