7
Light The Mira
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 62
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength72%
Delivery trend +5.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/07/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 22% | -0.30 |
| 23/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 08/10/2025 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 80% | +0.04 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 19/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 08/06/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 27/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |