3
Mermaid Magic
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 58
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 5.4 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 3-3 · tight 71/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▼
Strength72%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/07/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 08/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |