5
Tenacious Child
3yo Filly · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 70
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Allowance · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-07-17 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-16 | Aqueduct | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 7th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-7 · tight 55/100
▼ SLIPPING
Trend▬
Strength48%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/01/2026 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 56% | -0.23 |
| 05/02/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 43% | -0.26 |
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 03/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 28/06/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/07/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 63% | -0.22 |
| 28/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |