6
Always Packen
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 6 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
48%
Place Prob
36%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
| 2026-05-22 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2026-03-05 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-8 · tight 42/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength58%
Delivery trend -5.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/01/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 11/02/2026 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 82% | +0.66 |
| 05/03/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 44% | -0.13 |
| 22/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/06/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |
| 20/07/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 88% | +0.02 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 07/09/2026 | 2nd | 4/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |