3
Big Ego
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 54
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength14%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
| 2025-05-25 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength50%
Delivery trend +0.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/02/2025 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 86% | +0.09 |
| 21/03/2025 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 17/04/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |
| 25/05/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 80% | -0.10 |
| 23/09/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 05/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 25/08/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 29% | -0.08 |