9
Tony Hooks
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 9 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-04-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-6 · tight 65/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength66%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 83% | +0.36 |
| 10/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 25/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 71% | -0.05 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |