Keigs
5yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 90
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 4 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.3 /10 (raw 2.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-03-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -4.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/10/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 17/01/2026 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 88% | +0.61 |
| 18/02/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 18/03/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 60% | -0.27 |
| 10/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 83% | +0.12 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |