3
Monomoy Beach
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 3 · OR 72
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 80% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 45/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength24%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/07/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 04/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 33% | -0.55 |
| 08/09/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 25% | -0.49 |