Morning Cup
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 80
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-02-18 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-02-12 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-23 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-01-03 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -9.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/10/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 13/11/2025 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 0% | -0.94 |
| 27/12/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 03/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 83% | +0.31 |
| 23/01/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 12/02/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 18/02/2026 | 8th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 01/04/2026 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 43% | -0.44 |
| 12/07/2026 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 29% | -0.53 |