8
Arch's Assault
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.3 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2025-09-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 6-9 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -4.8% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/04/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 28/06/2025 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 38% | +0.11 |
| 10/08/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 70% | -0.14 |
| 28/09/2025 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 55% | -0.11 |
| 26/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 60% | +0.07 |
| 19/11/2025 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 19/08/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 09/09/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |