5
Call Saul
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 5 · OR 73
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-09-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 2-9 · tight 40/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength8%
Delivery trend -9.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/06/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 20/07/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 10/08/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 01/09/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 21/09/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |