10
Followill
3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 10 · OR 65
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 10.0 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-09-03 | Saratoga | ? | 12th | 16th | −4 |
| 2026-08-05 | Saratoga | ? | 11th | 15th | −4 |
| 2026-07-25 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 8th | −4 |
| 2026-06-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2025-08-22 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 4-9 · tight 58/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength22%
Delivery trend -5.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 13/06/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 25/07/2026 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 63% | +0.63 |
| 05/08/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/09/2026 | 12th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |