2
Poppy's Ticket
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 71
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
31%
Place Prob
35%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-17 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-03-22 | Aqueduct | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-12 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 4th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/05/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 10/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 22/03/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 17/04/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |
| 08/09/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |