1
Rumblyoungmanrumbl
3yo Colt · 8-9 · Draw 1 · OR 62
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARK
Move▲2
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.6 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | Saratoga | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-23 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-04-24 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-7 · tight 52/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength81%
Delivery trend -0.5% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 27/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/10/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 14% | -0.44 |
| 23/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 03/07/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 24/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 25/08/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 80% | +0.09 |