7
Start The Day
3yo Gelding · 8-9 · Draw 7 · OR 66
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲2
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-19 | Saratoga | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
| 2026-05-16 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 11th | 12th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 63/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength77%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2026 | 11th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 19/07/2026 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 38% | -0.20 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 07/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |