8
Candy Is Dandy
4yo Filly · 8-12 · Draw 8 · OR 44
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength60%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1022% of fieldRange 7-10 · tight 76/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/10/2025 | 3rd | 7/4 | 91% | 67% | -0.24 |
| 05/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 26/11/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 71% | -0.18 |
| 25/05/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 09/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 24/06/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 14/07/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 56% | -0.08 |
| 10/08/2026 | 7th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 09/09/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |