7
Funny Forecast
5yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 7 · OR 47
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
10%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARK
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1078% of fieldRange 2-8 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength53%
Delivery trend -1.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/10/2024 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 16/11/2024 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 03/06/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 80% | -0.09 |
| 01/07/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 10/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 67% | -0.21 |
| 12/08/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 88% | -0.04 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |