5
Back To Reality
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 88
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
7/5
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
89%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARK
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.7 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-12-20 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-11 | Mountaineer | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 5100% of fieldRange 1-2 · tight 81/100
▬ RUNS TO FORM
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.6% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/06/2025 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 25% | -0.63 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 20/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 11/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 67% | -0.25 |
| 20/12/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 28/04/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 2/5 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 2/9 | 99% | 100% | +0.01 |