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5yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 3 · OR 83
Fort Erie · Race 1 - Claiming · 5f
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Woodbine | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength83%
Delivery trend -1.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 44% | +0.08 |
| 24/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 31/10/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 14/11/2025 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 80% | +0.64 |
| 19/06/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 18/08/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |