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6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 74
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength9%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-31 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 64/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength83%
Delivery trend +3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 23/08/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 67% | -0.28 |
| 06/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 21/10/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 31/10/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 24/08/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 15/09/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 22/09/2026 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |