2
Four Beach Friends
5yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
78%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | -3th | +3 |
| 2026-03-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-02-05 | Gulfstream | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-01-17 | Gulfstream | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 74/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength92%
Delivery trend +3.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/10/2025 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 83% | -0.02 |
| 27/12/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 86% | +0.07 |
| 17/01/2026 | 4th | 13/8 | 91% | 63% | -0.29 |
| 05/02/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 05/03/2026 | 10th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 31/05/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 21/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 24/08/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |