Sunday's Well
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 77
Fort Erie · Race 2 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-09 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Woodbine | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/09/2025 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 14% | -0.68 |
| 28/09/2025 | 8th | 3/1 | 84% | 13% | -0.72 |
| 13/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 20% | -0.66 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 17% | -0.54 |
| 12/07/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 69% | -0.13 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 5/2 | 87% | 17% | -0.70 |
| 14/09/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |