2
Bongino
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · Draw 2 · OR 71
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-03 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 1-5 · tight 40/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend -1.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/06/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 12/08/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 25/08/2025 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 75% | +0.38 |
| 02/09/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 07/10/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 03/03/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 29/06/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 20/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 15/09/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |