3
Boston Bay
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 3 · OR 69
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-09-15 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 50% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▬
Strength17%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 07/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 20/10/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 27/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 03/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 18/08/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 31/08/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 15/09/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 29% | -0.32 |
| 29/09/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |