1
Commander Joe
8yo Horse · 8-10 · Draw 1 · OR 76
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
32%
Place Prob
28%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-02-01 | Mahoning Valley | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 57/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength69%
Delivery trend +6.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 6th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 07/10/2025 | 8th | 13/8 | 91% | 0% | -0.91 |
| 01/02/2026 | 5th | 13/8 | 91% | 33% | -0.58 |
| 25/02/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 29/06/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 20/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 11/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/8 | 90% | 50% | -0.40 |
| 17/08/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |