IvyArcIvyArc
5

Cooler Man

5yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 75

Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y

#5

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#5

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▼1
Strength64%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.3 /10 (raw 4.6)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Woodbine 05/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 85 · 6f 123 · below its mark05/09/2025 · OR 85 par5/09C8OR 85C8 @ Woodbine 26/09/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 85 · 6f110y Fas 123 · below its mark26/09/2025 · OR 85 parC8 @ Woodbine 17/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 86 · 7f110y Fm 121 · below its mark17/10/2025 · OR 86 par17/10C8OR 86C8 @ Woodbine 22/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 6f 121 · below its mark22/11/2025 · OR 83 parC5 @ Fort Erie 30/06/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 83 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/06/2026 · OR 83 par30/06C5OR 83C5 @ Fort Erie 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 83 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 83 parC5 @ Fort Erie 11/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 82 · 6f110y Fas 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/08/2026 · OR 82 par11/08C5OR 82C8 @ Fort Erie 24/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 75 · 5f110y Slo 122 · below its mark24/08/2026 · OR 75 parC8 @ Fort Erie 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 73 · 6f 124 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 73 par21/09C8OR 73projClass-projected finish: 4th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Fort Erie?5th5th0
2026-08-24Fort Erie?5th5th0
2026-08-11Fort Erie?1st-2th+3
2026-07-12Fort Erie?4th1st+3
2026-06-30Fort Erie?2nd-1th+3
2025-11-22Woodbine?3rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/0922/1111/0821/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 525% of fieldRange 1-3 · tight 70/100
▬ EDGING AHEAD
Trend▲
Strength87%

Delivery trend +4.9% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 5. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/09/20255th12/137%33%-0.04
26/09/20255th10/147%20%-0.27
17/10/20258th9/153%0%-0.53
22/11/20253rd9/153%71%+0.19
30/06/20262nd5/174%80%+0.06
12/07/20264th2/189%40%-0.49
11/08/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
24/08/20265th20/10%33%+0.33
21/09/20265th16/116%20%+0.04