Heat Merchant
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 78
Fort Erie · Race 3 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
9/5
Win Prob
44%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 7 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-08-18 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Fort Erie | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 5.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 26/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 14% | -0.49 |
| 22/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 18/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 50% | -0.18 |
| 21/09/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 80% | -0.02 |