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2

Paperback Hero

8yo Gelding · 8-8 · Draw 2 · OR 82

Fort Erie · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

12%

Place Prob

20%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Fort Erie 16/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 91 · 6f 122 · below its mark16/09/2025 · OR 91 par16/09C8OR 91C8 @ Fort Erie 07/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 90 · 6f Slo 122 · beat its mark07/10/2025 · OR 90 parC5 @ Fort Erie 20/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 91 · 5f110y Slo 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark20/10/2025 · OR 91 par20/10C5OR 91C8 @ Fort Erie 31/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 89 · 6f 124 · below its mark31/05/2026 · OR 89 parC8 @ Fort Erie 29/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 83 · 6f 124 · below its mark29/06/2026 · OR 83 par29/06C8OR 83C8 @ Fort Erie 12/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 80 · 6f Fas 124 · below its mark12/07/2026 · OR 80 parC8 @ Fort Erie 20/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR 80 · 6f 124 · below its mark20/07/2026 · OR 80 par20/07C8OR 80C8 @ Fort Erie 03/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 79 · 6f 124 · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 79 parC8 @ Fort Erie 21/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR 82 · 6f 122 · below its mark21/09/2026 · OR 82 par21/09C8OR 82projClass-projected finish: 5th of 5
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-21Fort Erie?5th6th−1
2026-08-03Fort Erie?1st2nd−1
2026-07-20Fort Erie?6th7th−1
2026-07-12Fort Erie?4th5th−1
2026-06-29Fort Erie?6th7th−1
2026-05-31Fort Erie?5th6th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/0931/0520/0721/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 575% of fieldRange 3-5 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength5%

Delivery trend -5.3% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 5. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20252nd15/890%75%-0.15
07/10/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
20/10/20253rd9/153%60%+0.07
31/05/20265th5/174%33%-0.40
29/06/20266th9/276%17%-0.60
12/07/20264th10/382%40%-0.42
20/07/20266th4/179%17%-0.62
03/08/20261st8/158%100%+0.42
21/09/20265th7/282%0%-0.82