5
Tiernan
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · Draw 5 · OR 83
Fort Erie · Race 4 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
16%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-11-22 | Woodbine | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-11-02 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-13 | Woodbine | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-09-01 | Woodbine | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 550% of fieldRange 2-4 · tight 70/100
▼ UNDER-DELIVERING
Trend▼
Strength48%
Delivery trend -3.6% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 5. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/05/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 20/07/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 38% | +0.01 |
| 10/08/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |
| 01/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 29% | +0.13 |
| 13/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 02/11/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 43% | -0.39 |
| 22/11/2025 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 30/06/2026 | 4th | 1/1 | 95% | 40% | -0.55 |
| 14/09/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |