5
Last Glimmer
6yo Mare · 8-12 · Draw 5 · OR 61
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-28 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-17 | Fort Erie | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-21 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Fort Erie | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 1-6 · tight 55/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength60%
Delivery trend +5.8% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 40% | -0.36 |
| 14/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/10/2025 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 67% | -0.20 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 50% | -0.39 |
| 21/07/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |
| 03/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 17/08/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 57% | +0.41 |
| 28/09/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 40% | +0.14 |