4
Nightsaber
6yo Mare · 8-10 · Draw 4 · OR 59
Fort Erie · Race 5 - Claiming · 6f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKED
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-22 | Fort Erie | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-14 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-24 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-27 | Fort Erie | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Fort Erie | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-4 · tight 72/100
▬ OVER-DELIVERING
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.1% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/04/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 22/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/06/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 12/07/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 75% | +0.12 |
| 27/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 11/08/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 67% | +0.04 |
| 24/08/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 14/09/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 22/09/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |